Final Post

I’m sure that most people who avidly keep watch on the upcoming weather forecasts have noticed that the information given can sometimes be a little off. The truth is, weather is extremely hard to predict, as the science of it hasn’t gotten down into an equation that yields several different weather coefficients. We know what is going to affect what, but only to an extent do we know why it is doing so. However, the extent to which we do know is extremely far, yielding intricate ways of producing accurate weather forecasts. Not only in forecasting, but live weather is also sometimes a little skewed from what it should really say. One would think that NOAA has enough mini observatories around to produce an accurate depiction of the weather, but from the research and observing I did for this project the live government forecast is only correct (within 2uu’s which considers a forecast to be “accurate”) about 70% of the time. So, that means that if you were to look at a live weather forecast for your local area, there is a 70% chance it is accurate, according to my relatively non-extensive observations. This however does not mean that there is a 70% chance of the weather being accurate for the specific spot one is in. The process of gathering weather data doesn’t only require sticking an anemometer in the air on your back porch, or looking out the window to check the thermometer. One collecting weather data has to go into several different environments to get several pieces of data to average them together. These environments include fields, high and low topography, woods and over bare rock due to the usual humidity rising off of the grass. In addition, the observer has to be a certain distance away from any rivers, lakes, or oceans when gathering data. This part makes it tricky for coastal communities such as a place like Plum Island. The closest thing one can do to get an accurate depiction of the weather there is to look at the Newbury regional forecast and just assume that it is going to be a little colder and a little windier.

My house was far enough from the river to get an accurate reading for most of the observations I made, but like I stated earlier several different spots in West Newbury had to be tested. I stuck to three general locations around the area to gather the data from, and I did this 10 times over the past few weeks. The first spot was my house. My houses observations seemed to be pretty consistent with the forecast provided by NOAA excluding the wind speeds. This is easily explainable however. The wind around here usually blows from the south and due south from my house sits a massive hill which on the other side is long hill orchard. This means that the wind direction and speed is usually distorted around my house due to the swirling, redirecting and speed loss in the wind caused by the hill. Otherwise, the humidity, temperature and sky cover were exceptionally accurate.        

The next location where I collected data was in the Emery’s properties. These are located on the east side of town, and are generally used for conservation and a retreat place for those who worship Saint John the Evangelist. Here is a field, woods, rock and elevation change so it made a great place for me to collect data. This place was accurate in terms of everything. Similar to my house there was a little change in the wind but is again easily explainable. Even though it would be considered to be far enough from the river to gather data from, it is located in the curve of a riverbend, and the wind generally moves in one specific direction according to the whole valley that creates the river. Otherwise, just like the data I got from my house, was basically spot on.

The final location I took observations from was from a field connecting Groveland and West Newbury. This was located off of Crane Neck. Here, the wind was always spot on. Every single time I went there with the exception of one, the wind was within 1uu of being totally accurate. The humidity was similar to that of the predictions, but it was correct 7 out of the 10 times. The temperature was in basically spot on. 9 out of 10.

This project was more helpful to me than any I had ever done. I chose to do it because the enhancement of field data in the weather industry is something that I want to get into. More modules collecting data to produce more accurate forecasts. Not only will this help with everyday weather, but I feel as if the sports and activities that depend on weather will benefit from it aswell, and action sport forecasting companies will want to pay big money to get the data that these collect. Anyways, this project helped give me a good look on some future plans of mine, and somewhat served as a fun activity for me to follow along with over the stressful past weeks as school was beginning to end. I am excited and ready to use the skills I have found through this semester’s reading in my present and future life!

Quote Blog

“Doesn’t make sense to you either? The skill takes years of experience to master, and only a small percentage of the entire tribe (mostly related persons) is even capable of learning this technique”

This quote serves as a follow up statement to a long description of a technique used by ancient Philippine tribes (carried down to present day) on how to navigate from island to island. The method seems completely ridiculous to me. I do not understand how it could possibly work. This navigation method includes using imagination to set checkpoints in relations to stars. Sometimes a real island can be used, but it works with imaginary islands as well. The method is kept somewhat secret from other tribes in the local area and is used as an empowerment toward them aswell. A complicated but effective method such as this one can be what moves rice from this island to this island faster, or go on longer fishing trips to better fishing grounds. These are the kinds of things that set a tribe in a much higher realm of superiority vs another. In primitive or third world countries, this is crucial to holding an original lifestyle.

Once aid from a more civilized area is needed, the aided area ends up becoming more modern in terms of production, loss of original tradition, hunting and gathering techniques and many others. This can result in either bad or good. Say explosives were introduced to a fishing community, (this happened in the Maldives, French Polynesia) the people then use them underwater to stun or kill fish so they float to the surface so that they can get 100 fish in the time they used to catch 10. The local area begins to make more money, some buildings are built and people begin to live more civilized. Now, since the whole reef system surrounding the islands is almost destroyed, the Maldivians are migrating to different archipelagoes in search of new grounds to fish. What do they leave behind? Their home land which is now covered in ruins and a bunch of destroyed reefs where a similar livelihood may not exist up to 30 years from now. The advancement of a culture can be good however, but when it happens in a place that can sustain a primitive lifestyle to a flourishing extent, it can have a damaging affect.

Analytical

In “The Lost Art of Finding Our Way”, it is very clear that the author had put in a lot of time studying and researching the content of this book to develop a phenomenal balance between a conceptual and informational read. The basis of the conceptual piece is what is lost from humanity when finding our way is just a matter of looking into the device in the palm of your hand. This occupies about a quarter of the book. The rest is all different kinds of meathods both modern and ancient civilizations have been using to go on year long life threatening voyages and how well they can use them. From the Inuit living in northern Canada to the pacific islanders, many navigation meathods are taught through this amazing book. Graphs, sub articles and maps are used frequently to reinforce his information.

Books with authors that put a lot of time researching the topic in which they are writing about always seem to be easier for me to read. This attribute is usually clearly evident in books because there are no long spaces between useful pieces and no pointless chapters. The book stays interesting this way because the author has a lot to say. When I read a book, I am for the most part looking for some sort of information rather than just listening to a story. I enjoy directly getting useful information for me to actually use in my daily activities. Go back to the previous three topics I chose to read about this year. The first: Board Culture. After reading the books I chose I learned about global surf spots, life on tour and the development of modern and classic surfboard shapes. The second: Local History. The books I read second quarter just gave me more reason to wander around where I live. It also helped me understand the roots of the local area in terms of how this place became what it is. The Third: Weather. I am going to college to study atmospheric sciences. The knowledge I learned during this quarter may have been the most valuable out of all. I learned how bad weather can get and how it gets that way. This quarter, I have learned some good tips and tricks about placer navigation. Because we all have phones and GPS these skills aren’t as useful to me. But with basic knowledge on getting my bearings and getting somewhere, it will make me a whole lot more comfortable when I’m out on the water and the fog drops down. 

“Danish ethnographer Knud Rasmussen, who led the fith Thule Expedition across the roof of north America from 1921 to 1924, documented the Netsilik culture. He recorded the ways of the Inuit at a time when their culture remained relatively undiluted by European influence.”

According to Rasmussen, the Netsilik hunters had in memory a detailed spatial knowledge of their vast flatland, streams, and inlets that allowed them to find their way. Rasmussen recorded “It is astonishing how much the Netsilingmuit know about the land they live in, be it natural conditions and fauna or its early history. Though they had no previous knowledge of paper and pencil, they were remarkably quick in outlining the shape of their territory. Along with the basic outline of the area, landmarks, muddy sections and “honey holes” as they call hunting hotspots could also be marked with great certainty. The distances, of course, could sometimes be a little off. However, the maps that they produced were so accurate that even a complete stranger to the area could identify all of the marked islands, peninsulas bays and lakes. Again, this was not done on pencil and paper. Rock slab and a certain volcanic sand were used to make maps and then were hardened by melted tree sap. In the book, there is a side by side comparison of the outline a Netsilik hunter provided Rasmussen of their island. According to Knud, this was similar to a quick sketch (rumor has it) and it is compared side by side with a modern satellite outline of the area in the book. With a few minor distance and angle errors, the map provided by the Inuits was extremely accurate.

Image of King William Island, the settling place of the Netsilik

                Further toward the beginning of this book, the author provides somewhat of a disclaimer for his work. He states that the skills described in this book are barely half of what you need to master the skill of primitive navigation. Experience takes up the other chunk. I could tell you how to navigate your way through the backwater of plum island using right and left directions and landmarks, but if I were to put everything on a map and show you  where each landmark is going to be, forget it. And, that is based off the fact that I have seen it all by satellite imaging before. Another example would be basic driving directions. “merge onto x highway continue 120 miles and exit onto interstate 13…..” These kinds of directions are easy to follow. Once the driver gets to the destination, ask him or her to draw a map of the route he just took corresponding to what he saw and where he went. No way. True mastery of an area and navigation go hand in hand. Navigation of a specific area is the current topic in my book. This is done based off of general distance knowledge and landmarks. What happens during a blizzard when you can’t see 10 feet in front of you? That is what I’m seeking to learn next. 

The Secret Voyage of Sir Francis Drake

The Voyage of Sir Francis Drake is a perfect example of a book that achieves its purpose. The intent of the book, as I caught wind of by an interview on the author, is to describe the courage and ambition needed to embark on a half world journey with no modern materials. The information behind the storyline was dug up strictly from old articles found in old harbor records dating hundreds of years ago. This still remains one of the only documentations of this voyage Sir Francis Drake made behind the eyes of the Spanish royalty. Usually, missions or expeditions like this were funded by the government. The expense for food and material were almost unattainable at this time, so the entire mission was almost done primitively. I learned about some background info on this through internet research. Another aid the government provided conquistador like individuals such as Sir Francis Drake was all the information gathered by any voyage pertaining to the geographical landmarks or weather habits observed by previous voyages. There were previous expeditions to this area that could have helped Sir Francis out, but he went at it with the attitude of a true explorer and did it all on his own.

The area in which he traveled to is what we would call British Columbia. The name was created by Englishmen many years after Francis’ expedition. Little is truly known about this expedition. Because of this, for the author to create it into a 350 page book, there needed to be some literal underlying message or meaning to the expedition described in the book. This was, as I stated before, the ambition to carry out a task through shear desire. The book provided me a lot of information on the crew Sir Francis brought with him on the trip. Instead of just a bunch of horsepower like most crews, this voyage was done with fewer more skilled individuals. Most of which have gotten close to this area and were astounded by the beauty of the landscape. For comparison, it would be like the top hitters in the MLB back in the 90s getting together to play a game of pickup baseball now.  It is considered to be Sir Francis’ voyage, but many other well-known explorers were present on the trip. 

Quote Blog

“There was a specific call to evacuate all trailer parks in southern New Jersey. Churchill’s double-wide was among the smaller of the park, and we were about to take on a force 4 hurricane in it.”

Reed Timmer, author of "Into the Storm"

Corresponding with this quote, storm chaser Reed Timmer, he also being the author, is on his first career storm chase in southern New Jersey. CNN happened to come across footage he captured of a vicious tornado touching down in Nebraska about three months prior to this and got back in contact with him to see if he would be down for the task again. Reed’s shared experience huddling under the underpass, where he recreationally filmed the tornado, discouraged most of his friends to join him on the next ride. He and his pal Ryan drove down to southern New Jersey under CNN’s request to get footage of a menacing purple blob (meteorologists refer purple blobs to large storms as they appear this way on a base reflectivity satellite images) for them to use during their news coverage of the event. News stations often send out thrill seeking young guys to do this since they do not have the funds to provide the chasers with much protection from the storm. This leading Reed and Ryan to end up staying in Churchill’s double wide trailer. Churchill was a nice man they met in a refuge location carrying with him wife and two kids. After hearing Reed’s story, Churchill presented Reed with the option of staying in his house. By this we can tell Reed had no real plans or intentions for safety, and was completely unprepared for this.

Luckily, the storm ended easing off back to a category 2 due to headwind coming off the shore. However, from Reed’s descriptions during his overnight in the double wide, it is easy to see that this storm was still nothing to joke about. The broken windows, soaked interior and minor structural damage are all pieces of evidence of this not being a pleasant event. Unfortunately the hurricane struck after hours and because of the lack of light Reed and Ryan couldn't capture any footage. Reed still describes this to be one of the funnest times in his career, Ryan would disagree.  

The element of fear is seen by everyone. It can be seen either as a thrill, or a fear. One is not typically willing to be scared or intimidated unless some sort of a thrill or positive experience is presented. Its people who bypass the fear aspect of situations to seek the experience who push the industries. This is broad, the idea can relate to many different circumstances. Connecting this to myself, this is how I have always felt about going about my life. Supporting those who carry out their ideas and myself carrying out my own.

The Lost Art of Finding Our Way

The above quote is the title of the first book I am going to read this quarter. I have not received the book yet as it has not been delivered yet, but a few conclusions can be drawn from the title and other descriptions of the book. From others feedback toward this book, I have found this to be an informational piece of writing rather than a rant on how the lost art of finding our way has contributed to a decay of morals in society or whatever one can draw from this. Although this book is informational, that underlying message of the title “The Lost Art of Finding Our Way” must play a role in this book somewhere. Apparently, examples from failed and successful voyages such as Lewis and Clark expeditions, St. Francis adventures and modern voyages are often used in this book. I am very curious to see how the lack of primitive navigation skills in the modern voyages have led to poor or even fatal outcomes. Not only this, but how the basic primitive navigation skills could have helped them get back to where they needed to be.

As a boater and surfer, being aware of my surroundings is very key. Always looking at every detail of the shoreline and remembering different landmarks everywhere I go have both been regular adaptations to my train of thought. Say you were to stick me on the isle of shoals. From different points on the beach that i have remembered over the years and lots of map studying I can get myself anywhere I need to be linearly from Rye NH to the tip of Cape Ann. These are the built in navigation skills that I do have. But say you were going to drop me south of the Cape. I know what islands are down there, roughly where they are, but by no means can I point out Hyannisport or Block Island from a point they are both visible. I know which spot is south of the other, but I don’t have the landmarks down as I, besides one trip, have never been down there. Simply, I need to touch up on my navigation skills before I go into any uncharted territory. Ways I can; moon patterns, celestial nav, the sun, currents and rock patterns. With a basic idea of where things are combined with these primitive navigation skills, I can expand my horizons and find my way to just about anywhere.