Final Post

I’m sure that most people who avidly keep watch on the upcoming weather forecasts have noticed that the information given can sometimes be a little off. The truth is, weather is extremely hard to predict, as the science of it hasn’t gotten down into an equation that yields several different weather coefficients. We know what is going to affect what, but only to an extent do we know why it is doing so. However, the extent to which we do know is extremely far, yielding intricate ways of producing accurate weather forecasts. Not only in forecasting, but live weather is also sometimes a little skewed from what it should really say. One would think that NOAA has enough mini observatories around to produce an accurate depiction of the weather, but from the research and observing I did for this project the live government forecast is only correct (within 2uu’s which considers a forecast to be “accurate”) about 70% of the time. So, that means that if you were to look at a live weather forecast for your local area, there is a 70% chance it is accurate, according to my relatively non-extensive observations. This however does not mean that there is a 70% chance of the weather being accurate for the specific spot one is in. The process of gathering weather data doesn’t only require sticking an anemometer in the air on your back porch, or looking out the window to check the thermometer. One collecting weather data has to go into several different environments to get several pieces of data to average them together. These environments include fields, high and low topography, woods and over bare rock due to the usual humidity rising off of the grass. In addition, the observer has to be a certain distance away from any rivers, lakes, or oceans when gathering data. This part makes it tricky for coastal communities such as a place like Plum Island. The closest thing one can do to get an accurate depiction of the weather there is to look at the Newbury regional forecast and just assume that it is going to be a little colder and a little windier.

My house was far enough from the river to get an accurate reading for most of the observations I made, but like I stated earlier several different spots in West Newbury had to be tested. I stuck to three general locations around the area to gather the data from, and I did this 10 times over the past few weeks. The first spot was my house. My houses observations seemed to be pretty consistent with the forecast provided by NOAA excluding the wind speeds. This is easily explainable however. The wind around here usually blows from the south and due south from my house sits a massive hill which on the other side is long hill orchard. This means that the wind direction and speed is usually distorted around my house due to the swirling, redirecting and speed loss in the wind caused by the hill. Otherwise, the humidity, temperature and sky cover were exceptionally accurate.        

The next location where I collected data was in the Emery’s properties. These are located on the east side of town, and are generally used for conservation and a retreat place for those who worship Saint John the Evangelist. Here is a field, woods, rock and elevation change so it made a great place for me to collect data. This place was accurate in terms of everything. Similar to my house there was a little change in the wind but is again easily explainable. Even though it would be considered to be far enough from the river to gather data from, it is located in the curve of a riverbend, and the wind generally moves in one specific direction according to the whole valley that creates the river. Otherwise, just like the data I got from my house, was basically spot on.

The final location I took observations from was from a field connecting Groveland and West Newbury. This was located off of Crane Neck. Here, the wind was always spot on. Every single time I went there with the exception of one, the wind was within 1uu of being totally accurate. The humidity was similar to that of the predictions, but it was correct 7 out of the 10 times. The temperature was in basically spot on. 9 out of 10.

This project was more helpful to me than any I had ever done. I chose to do it because the enhancement of field data in the weather industry is something that I want to get into. More modules collecting data to produce more accurate forecasts. Not only will this help with everyday weather, but I feel as if the sports and activities that depend on weather will benefit from it aswell, and action sport forecasting companies will want to pay big money to get the data that these collect. Anyways, this project helped give me a good look on some future plans of mine, and somewhat served as a fun activity for me to follow along with over the stressful past weeks as school was beginning to end. I am excited and ready to use the skills I have found through this semester’s reading in my present and future life!

Quote Blog

“Doesn’t make sense to you either? The skill takes years of experience to master, and only a small percentage of the entire tribe (mostly related persons) is even capable of learning this technique”

This quote serves as a follow up statement to a long description of a technique used by ancient Philippine tribes (carried down to present day) on how to navigate from island to island. The method seems completely ridiculous to me. I do not understand how it could possibly work. This navigation method includes using imagination to set checkpoints in relations to stars. Sometimes a real island can be used, but it works with imaginary islands as well. The method is kept somewhat secret from other tribes in the local area and is used as an empowerment toward them aswell. A complicated but effective method such as this one can be what moves rice from this island to this island faster, or go on longer fishing trips to better fishing grounds. These are the kinds of things that set a tribe in a much higher realm of superiority vs another. In primitive or third world countries, this is crucial to holding an original lifestyle.

Once aid from a more civilized area is needed, the aided area ends up becoming more modern in terms of production, loss of original tradition, hunting and gathering techniques and many others. This can result in either bad or good. Say explosives were introduced to a fishing community, (this happened in the Maldives, French Polynesia) the people then use them underwater to stun or kill fish so they float to the surface so that they can get 100 fish in the time they used to catch 10. The local area begins to make more money, some buildings are built and people begin to live more civilized. Now, since the whole reef system surrounding the islands is almost destroyed, the Maldivians are migrating to different archipelagoes in search of new grounds to fish. What do they leave behind? Their home land which is now covered in ruins and a bunch of destroyed reefs where a similar livelihood may not exist up to 30 years from now. The advancement of a culture can be good however, but when it happens in a place that can sustain a primitive lifestyle to a flourishing extent, it can have a damaging affect.

Analytical

In “The Lost Art of Finding Our Way”, it is very clear that the author had put in a lot of time studying and researching the content of this book to develop a phenomenal balance between a conceptual and informational read. The basis of the conceptual piece is what is lost from humanity when finding our way is just a matter of looking into the device in the palm of your hand. This occupies about a quarter of the book. The rest is all different kinds of meathods both modern and ancient civilizations have been using to go on year long life threatening voyages and how well they can use them. From the Inuit living in northern Canada to the pacific islanders, many navigation meathods are taught through this amazing book. Graphs, sub articles and maps are used frequently to reinforce his information.

Books with authors that put a lot of time researching the topic in which they are writing about always seem to be easier for me to read. This attribute is usually clearly evident in books because there are no long spaces between useful pieces and no pointless chapters. The book stays interesting this way because the author has a lot to say. When I read a book, I am for the most part looking for some sort of information rather than just listening to a story. I enjoy directly getting useful information for me to actually use in my daily activities. Go back to the previous three topics I chose to read about this year. The first: Board Culture. After reading the books I chose I learned about global surf spots, life on tour and the development of modern and classic surfboard shapes. The second: Local History. The books I read second quarter just gave me more reason to wander around where I live. It also helped me understand the roots of the local area in terms of how this place became what it is. The Third: Weather. I am going to college to study atmospheric sciences. The knowledge I learned during this quarter may have been the most valuable out of all. I learned how bad weather can get and how it gets that way. This quarter, I have learned some good tips and tricks about placer navigation. Because we all have phones and GPS these skills aren’t as useful to me. But with basic knowledge on getting my bearings and getting somewhere, it will make me a whole lot more comfortable when I’m out on the water and the fog drops down. 

“Danish ethnographer Knud Rasmussen, who led the fith Thule Expedition across the roof of north America from 1921 to 1924, documented the Netsilik culture. He recorded the ways of the Inuit at a time when their culture remained relatively undiluted by European influence.”

According to Rasmussen, the Netsilik hunters had in memory a detailed spatial knowledge of their vast flatland, streams, and inlets that allowed them to find their way. Rasmussen recorded “It is astonishing how much the Netsilingmuit know about the land they live in, be it natural conditions and fauna or its early history. Though they had no previous knowledge of paper and pencil, they were remarkably quick in outlining the shape of their territory. Along with the basic outline of the area, landmarks, muddy sections and “honey holes” as they call hunting hotspots could also be marked with great certainty. The distances, of course, could sometimes be a little off. However, the maps that they produced were so accurate that even a complete stranger to the area could identify all of the marked islands, peninsulas bays and lakes. Again, this was not done on pencil and paper. Rock slab and a certain volcanic sand were used to make maps and then were hardened by melted tree sap. In the book, there is a side by side comparison of the outline a Netsilik hunter provided Rasmussen of their island. According to Knud, this was similar to a quick sketch (rumor has it) and it is compared side by side with a modern satellite outline of the area in the book. With a few minor distance and angle errors, the map provided by the Inuits was extremely accurate.

Image of King William Island, the settling place of the Netsilik

                Further toward the beginning of this book, the author provides somewhat of a disclaimer for his work. He states that the skills described in this book are barely half of what you need to master the skill of primitive navigation. Experience takes up the other chunk. I could tell you how to navigate your way through the backwater of plum island using right and left directions and landmarks, but if I were to put everything on a map and show you  where each landmark is going to be, forget it. And, that is based off the fact that I have seen it all by satellite imaging before. Another example would be basic driving directions. “merge onto x highway continue 120 miles and exit onto interstate 13…..” These kinds of directions are easy to follow. Once the driver gets to the destination, ask him or her to draw a map of the route he just took corresponding to what he saw and where he went. No way. True mastery of an area and navigation go hand in hand. Navigation of a specific area is the current topic in my book. This is done based off of general distance knowledge and landmarks. What happens during a blizzard when you can’t see 10 feet in front of you? That is what I’m seeking to learn next.